Activision Expecting Call of Duty: Black Ops to sell 20% Less than Modern Warfare 2

November 8, 2010, By Christian Davis

As weird as this sounds, Activision seems a bit timid towards the sales of Call of Duty: Black Ops. Why would anyone think that? Well it seems they have some pretty good reasons.

The conclusion was brought up by Cowan & Company’s Doug Creutz, who also suggested that the publisher is being conservative with estimates of non-GAAP guidance between 72-74 cents per share for the full financial year.

“This includes an assumption that the upcoming Call of Duty: Black Ops comps negatively against last year’s Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, despite the fact that on several pre-release metrics cited by management Black Ops is tracking ahead of Modern Warfare 2,” Creutz told investors.

It seems like Activision is being fairly conservative due to the fact that two other blockbuster First Person Shooters, Halo: Reach and Medal of Honor, will probably pick up again for the rapidly approaching Holiday Season.

“We think management’s guidance implies Black Ops units down roughly 20 per cent versus Modern Warfare 2,” said Creutz.

Revising Cowan’s guidance to 77 cents per share, Cruetz claimed that “our non-GAAP estimate assumes Black Ops is down 10 per cent versus Modern Warfare 2, so we think management is taking a more conservative stance for guidance purposes.”

There’s nothing wrong with being Conservative, but Activision should be pleasantly surprised with the game sales.

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